Omaha Weather Office

February 29, 2008

Result of Global Warming - Gulf Stream Weakening

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 3:08 pm

It’s Friday, warmer weather is moving in, and not much inclement weather is going on, i thought i might share this article with you from unknowncountry.com;

Scientists Confirm Unexpected Gulf Stream Slowing
09-May-2005

Gulf Stream
Scientists from Cambridge University have confirmed that the Gulf Stream is weakening, and this is likely to bring much colder temperatures to Europe within a few years. The weakening is significant: the Gulf Stream is flowing at a quarter of the strength that was present five years ago.
This is happening because gigantic chimneys of cold water that were sinking from the surface to the sea bed off Greenland have disappeared. These chimneys are the key engine of world climate as we know it today, and their disappearance signals the beginning of a great catastrophe. There will be a special report about this important story on this week’s Dreamland!

This is the first research to show unequivocal evidence of the phenomenon, which was originally predicted in the Coming Global Superstorm, published in 1999.

In Superstorm and in the film based on it, the Day After Tomorrow, the event unfolds over the course of a week. The Cambridge scientists are predicting now that there will be clear water at the North Pole as early as 2020, and that temperatures in Britain are likely to drop by 5-8 degrees Celsius, from an average of 22 at present to 14 to 17 in the future. An average as low as 17 (62 Fahrenheit) will mean that the summer growing season will be catastrophically curtailed in Europe, leading to huge declines in production from one of the world’s primary surplus production zones.

It will also mean that winters similar to those in Finland will extend far south into France, and that there is a possibility that a series of “no-melt” summers across the northern latitudes could cause the reflectivity of the planet to increase to the point that new glaciation will begin.

The weakening of the Gulf Stream is destabilizing currents worldwide, and will lead to radical climate changes in other areas. The nature of these changes is not known, and the current US administration has blocked US environmental agencies from studying the phenomenon, so the severity of its effect in this country is not under study. However, it is likely that the eastern US and eastern Canada will experience climate change as radical as that in Europe, as the Gulf Stream drops south. At the least, food production and liveability in the eastern half of North America will be severely challenged.

Scientists are currently assuming that the Gulf Stream will slow and stop over a period of years, not suddenly, as predicted in Superstorm and portrayed in the Day After Tomorrow.

However, there is ample evidence that sudden and extreme changes have taken place worldwide in the past. Unknowncountry.com reported on this phenomenon in December of 2004 and earlier in November of 2003.

There is a mechanism that changes a process of climate change that seems to be unfolding over a period of years into a violent event that takes just hours or days to develop, and then remains in a radically changed condition. This happened 5,200 years ago, as has amply been revealed in the fossil record.

Why it happened remains unknown, but it certainly had to do with the very sort of spiking of temperatures that the world has experienced over the past fifty years, and a reversal.

The changes that are taking place in the Gulf Stream are unstoppable. They will unfold. How that will happen, and whether or not the process will involve sudden and violent worldwide storms such as those that took place 5,200 years ago remains unknown.

It is, however, essential that planning for the change begin at once. At the least, the world faces dramatic economic upheavals and a decline in food production at a time when both energy and food needs are at the highest they have ever been in history.

So far, the only other media outlet that has picked up this story is the Sunday Times of Great Britain, and they have not provided the true perspective, or discussed the scale of the changes that are on their way. For the Times story, click here.

We need to concentrate on cleaning up our problems here on Earth so future generations can inherit a world worth living in, before The Day After Tomorrow arrives. Read the novella based on the hit movie!

February 28, 2008

Clipper Moving Through

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 6:00 pm

Clipper Moving Through

The Weak little clipper is moving through. Areas such as Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa should only receive light showers or sprinkles for the mornings. They may not even experience that because the dew points are so low. Areas such as Central and Eastern Iowa may experience 1-2″ of snow maybe 3″ in the Northeast Iowa. Areas such as Chicago up to duluth will see 2-4″ of snowfall. Overall, this system will not be a big deal, but use caution when traveling on the roads.

TEMPERATURES ON THE UPGLIDE…….

The Plains shall experience a taste of spring this weekend! Saturday High temperatures in Kansas and Missouri shoot shoot up into the 60’s and 70’s for highs and 50’s and 60’s for highs in Nebraska and Iowa. Areas in Western Nebraska may be a bit higher into the low 60’s. Areas north of that should top out in the 40’s and 50’s. If you are going camping, or doing anything outdoors related this weekend, please look at the Outdoor Forecast Page. Their may be a few showers Sunday in Eastern Nebraska and Iow as well as Kansas and Missouri.

Off Topic ; Dooms Day Seed Vault Opened
Rights go to National Geographic

February 26, 2008—A half moon shines over the entrance to the new Svalbard Global Seed Vault in a recent photo.

The Norwegian Arctic island of Svalbard will see no direct sunlight for at least another week, but the vault’s opening today brightened the spirits of dozens of guests who gathered for its dedication ceremonies.

The “doomsday” vault is designed to keep millions of seed samples safe from natural and unnatural disasters: global warming, asteroid strikes, plant diseases, nuclear warfare, and even earthquakes—in fact, the structure absorbed a magnitude 6.2 quake here last week without a crack.

Though Norway owns the global seed bank—the first of its kind—other countries can store seeds in it and remove them as needed. The genes in the seeds may someday be needed to adapt crops to endure climate change, droughts, blights, and other potential catastrophes.

• More Photos in the News
• Today’s 15 Most Read Stories
• Free Email Newsletter: Focus on Photography

Late Night Analysis on the Clipper

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 2:55 am

Late Night Analysis on the Clipper
8:47 PM

Most models have came out, including the GFS, NAM, NGM. The GFS model is more robust with the totals all the way from Des Moines, to Chicago to Duluth Minnesota. The GFS suggest anywhere from 2-4″ int hose areas with more snowfall accumulations near Duluth and the Lakes. This is the total precip that the GFs is projecting;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif

On the other hand, NAM is much more drier with this event a a bit more east with the precip. If i went with the NAM model, it would be saying most of Wisconsin would be seeing 1-5″ of snowfall with that area extended eastward into Michigan. Areas such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids would only see 1 maybe 2″ of snowfall with this event. Chicago could be seeing 1-3″ maybe slightly more. Areas such as Omaha Nebraska and Eastern Nebraska could se a brief period of light rain in the morning with some sleet pellets mixed in very early when the precip starts. Here is an image of the total NAM precip;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_048l.gif

Once again, the NGM model develops a light band of sleet and light rain in Extreme Eastern Nebraska in the early morning hours Thursday. Basically, the NGM develops this band and moves it east into Iowa with Central Iowa and Eastern Iowa seeing 1″ to possibly 2″ of snowfall. It also developes a 2-4″ snowfall band near Chicago and 2-5″ possible up near Duluth Minnesota.

Basically, the models have hinted more to a Eastern track of this storm and not much snow in iowa as the GFS was stating.

Stay tuned for more updates as they happen.

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck
Chief Forecasting Operations

February 27, 2008

Late Week Clipper Update

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 1:46 pm

Late Week Clipper Update
7:43 AM

Looks like the models, mainly the GFS model, are trying to develope a CLipper System tomorrow. The GFS has 3-5″ of new snowfall anywhere from Des Moines to Chicago. While the NAM is much drier with only 1-3″ in Chicago. The NGM model is developing it a bit slow. So i will a full update later today.

Very nice weekend ahead!

The weekend will be perfect for outdoor activities, but it will be a little muddy! Highs will reach the 50’s as far north as Nebraska and Iowa and 60’s in Missouri and Kansas. Please read the outdoor cast for more information.

Today in Weather History

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

1969 - A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

The Temperatures are on a Upglide!

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 12:00 am

The Temperatures are on a Upglide!

After the strong storm system dumped anywhere from 1-5″ of snowfall across Nebraska and Iowa yesterday, things will begin to warm up and the snow will once again begin the process of melting! Highs will continue to warm up into the mid 30’s across Nebraska and Iowa and with 40’s and 50’s for kansas and Missouri. No precipitation is forecasted for days until early next sunday. This weekend should be rather warm with highs as far north as Nebraska and Iowa experiencing 50’s for high temperatures! Kansas and Missouri will enjoy temperatures in the 60’s and 50’s! So get outside this weekend, go camping, go on a bike ride. Do something! As we head into Sunday-Monday, their may be a few shows scattered about over eastern Nebraska and Iowa as well as Eastern Kansas and Missouri. Nothing major, just a car wash for your cars if you park them outside. as we head into next week, models have been developing the possibility of a storm across portions of the Plains, the Gfs model has been flip flopping between something and nothing and the Euro model has been flip flopping also. I guess time will only tell and if i see something worth noting, i will surely tell you guys!

The Coming of a New Mini Ice age?

I found a rather interesting story that a new ice age may be coming, similar to the Mini Ice age in the 1900’s;

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather Man
Chief Forecasting Operations

February 26, 2008

Winter Storm Moving East

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 12:04 am

Winter Storm Moving East

well folks, the Winter Storm that was suppose to produce big amounts of snowfall did materialized. Only areas of indianna should see 6-8″ of snowfall. Areas of Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa should wind up with 1-3″ of wet slushy wind driven snow. Areas from Central Iowa eastward to to Chicago and Detroit should see 3-6″ of snowfall. Keep in mind that the wind will be a big problem, so certainly some blowing and drifting snowfall shall be possible. All Eastern Nebraska schools should be open tomorrow!

I have came out with my final call;

Warming back up!

After a brief spell of Winters Comeback the Central Plains will begin to warm up immensley once again towards the weekend! Areas as north as Nebraska and Iowa shall see 50 degree temps with 50’s and 60’s for Kansas and Missouri! This should melt the rest of the snow cover away in most areas.

A Look into the future…..

As we head into March, things shall become VERY stormy once again. The GFS Computer model was developing a BIG MAJOR winter storm in the Central Plains around the 5th and 6th of March. Keep in mind that March can be one of the worst months for big snows. Remember last march 2007 in Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa? Yep, they had a Blizzard with 50 MPH winds and up to 6-16″ of snowfall. Folks, March will be a very stormy month. The snow isn’t over yet.

Enjoy the warmth!

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather Man
Chief Forecasting Operations

February 25, 2008

“Major” Winter Storm Continues

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 8:33 pm

Folks, this is a quick 2:28 update. The snowfall continues to spirial around in Nebraska with 2-4″ of snowfall from i-80 northward with Omaha Nebraska seeing 2-3″ of snowfall once the temperature cools down. Raods should re main fine throughout the day and should ice up later tonight as the temp drops. Realistically, the only places that could see 4-8″ of snowfall could be Chicago to 100 miles south of detroit. Thunder snow has been reported in parts of Nebraska this morning and if you get under that heavy snow band rates could reach 1″. Here is my forecasting totals for a few select cities;

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNE0353&animate=true

Radar above

Omaha NEB; 1-3″[Ground temp is quite warm, may be lucky to reach 3"]
Lincoln Nebraska 1″
Fremont; 3″
Des Moines; 4-6″
Chicago; 4-6″
Detroit; 4-6″

More bigger update will happen afer 5:00 PM today!

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather Man
Chief Forecasting Operations

MAJOR WINTER STORM

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 2:42 am

Folks, We have a MAJOR winter storm on our hands. The last NAm runs earlier today pointed towards a more south solution, now this evening they are back north. Just when the Gfs was a bit further North, it shifted further south again with areas such as Omaha Nebraska seeing 3-7″ of snowfall. Even the NGM is a bit further south but not for our Nebraska counties! once, again, looks like an battle of the models continues until the storm arrives. Here is my latest map;

More updates will be made tomorrow.

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather MAn
Chief Forecasting Operations

February 23, 2008

WINTER STORM COVERAGE : 26-28TH

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 11:24 pm

9:04 PM Update on WINTER STORM

Folks, the latest NAm came out and was much further south then the last NAM model;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_078l.gif

This would give areas in Nebraska from i-80 Northward 3-6″ of snowfall and further into NE nebraska could be 6-8″ of snowfall. Areas in Iowa could pick up mostly the same but more to the north and less to the south. The Experimental NAM was much further South with East Central Nebraska eastward into iowa towards Chicago seeing 4-8″ of snowfall;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_078l.gif

Well, thats all for the update now. May be an update later because the Gsf model will be coming out.

Good evening folks! The Omaha Weather Office has a busy 2 days as we continue to look at various models and come up with forecast. The latest GFS model was a bit further south and is now coming into agreement with the Experimental NAM. Though, Experimental NAM is a bit further south, i think that is where it will end up. It gives Eastern Nebraska about 4-8″ of snowfall. The NAM model was much further north and was not giving most of Iowa and Nebraska any precip, so for now i will ignore that model. the ECMWF model was tracking the storm across Southeast Nebraska then through Southern Iowa with the Heaviest snowfall in Southeast South Dakota Northern Iowa and Southern Minnesota. While i think the more southward shift will happen in the models in the next few days anything can happen at this point because of the big disagreement in the models. Right now i would put Omaha Nebraska to Lincoln Nebraska points north with 3-6″ of new snowfall and areas from Fremont to Norfolk from 6-10″ as well extended that into Central and Eastern Iowa into Chicago. Their may even be a mix of freezing rain/sleet at the transition in Eastern Nebraska. Most areas on the backside should experience ground Blizzard conditions with wind gust up to 50 mph from eastern Nebraska - Iowa. here is my forecast map as of now;

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather Man
Chief Forecasting Operations

Morning Update

Filed under: 1 — craig1 @ 3:27 pm

Mid Day Update as well as Pre-Mature Snowfall Map

More in depth discussion will be written this afternoon when more models come in.

Morning Update

Hello, Good morning everyone! *Yawn*. Lets first start off talking about the GFS this morning. The Gsf runs were basically the same from last nights computer model runs. It forms a low in Western Kansas then moves east into Northeast Kansas then continues its eastward progression. That would in turn give Northeast Nebraska, EXtreme south east south dakota, Central and Northern Iowa and Eastern Iowa the best shot at HEAVY snowfall. The latest NAM is much further north with the system;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p60_084l.gif

I am not buying that run however the latest UKMEt is much further south, south of Kansas City;

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/ukmetPR_00_panel.gif

That would give much of nebraska and Iowa some heavy snowfall accumulations.

This was just a quick morning update on the model but a more detailed update later on this afternoon.

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck AKA McWeather Man
Chief Forecasting Operations

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