Folks, the storm is gonna be much weaker then anticipated even by the models! While looking at radar, it doesn’t seem anybody in Nebraska will se a good amount of rain except the far Southeast Nebraska. Kansas and Missouri have a much better shot at some rain especially Southern Missouri where Flood Watches are out. Will their be any snow still? Not likely, only areas to experience this is far western Nebraska and far Southeast Nebraska and far Northern Kansas.
Good morning everyone! We are in store for a heck of a day today! Today we should experience some spring rains after the noon hour today and some areas may pick up near .50 of a inch of rain. As colder air moves in rain should change over to snowfall and areas such as Omaha Lincoln Nebraska may experience 1-2″ of snow maybe 3″ if you are lucky. The models still are not agreeing even on the day of the storm, but i will guarantee you that we will see some spring rains today and may even hear a clap of thunder.
Radar Update
Currently, the radar shows a good amounts of precip over the area! But no rain is falling yet! That is virga and not reaching the ground. So really expect the rainfall to intensify later today.
Folks, we got quite a bit of rain in store for Nebraska and Iowa tomorrow! The latest models are developing anywhere from .25-.75 of rain for parts of Nebraska and Iowa as well as Eastern Kansas. The models have also been depicting a NARROW snow band mainly in Eastern Nebraska on the backside with 1-3″ of snowfall expected. As of now, doesn’t look like a HUGE snowstorm just a few inches at this point. however, i have a feeling that this storm has something up its sleeve and march can be very tricky. So get out the snow shovels and you can shovel a wet slushy 1-3″ of snowfall Saturday morning or if you are one of those people who sleeps in you can just let it melt off during the day! Best thing, it wont stick around! It will be mostly in the upper 30’s to 40’s for highs so it should melt of quickly.
Next Weeks Storm
The models have been flip flopping between throwing this storm away or a bit of a decent sized storm. The latest GFS model developes a good bout of rainfall on Monday across Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas. Most areas should stay above freezing so no worrys yet about SNOW. As we head into Monday night things change, their seems to be a light band of Snowfall in Eastern Nebraska with a possible 1-3″ of snowfall if everything goes right. Then the model just sinks the storm down into Texas and really engergizes it like the energizer bunny. Anyways, the storm would then move northeast and would pull copius amounts of rainfall and severe weather in the Southeast and Ohio Valley during the mid week with possible back end snowfall as far north as Chicago. this storm is interesting becuse if it backs up even further NW, it could be affecting areas such as KC maybe far Southeast Nebraska. Always something to watch in the weather world so please stay on top of it by checking this website every now and then for the latest updates.
The NAM is showing that Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa as well as Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas would get the brunt of the snowfall accumulations.
Compared that to the GFS model is is almost identical;
It also has a plume of heavier snowfall in Eastern Nebraska. The NGM however is a bit different and looks quite like the March 04 Storm in Iowa and Nebraska;
This storm depicted on the NGM looks quite like that storm that occured in Iowa in march of 04′. It gave much of Southern Western and Central Iowa over 1 ft of snow.
LIVE! Video from the STORM!
Thats right, tomorrow i will have a couple videos up showing whats going on in the pottent. winter storm in Omaha Nebraska!
Example of Video;
However, I am not going to put out a snowfall forecast yet as models still have a lot of work to go through to get a final result.
I will be focusing soley on the possibility of a MAJOR WINTER STORM for parts of Nebraska and Iowa today. Currently, the newest NAM computer model has been increasing amounts the whole day with each run. I will go step by step with each frame carefully explaining it.
The low pressure is starting to gather strength in Colorado on Friday with a few light showers and snow showers in Northern Nebraska and Southern South Dakota. Chicago starts to mix rain/snow.
Well thats a wrap folks on the NAM model. Areas in Central and Eastern Nebraska as well as Southern Iowa need to watch out for this storm. This doesn’t mean that we will see a big storm, but my confidence is increasing. I will have to see the GFS and other models before i get on board with this.
The storm quickly gathers strength and the freezing line is very close to the Omaha area if not on top of them. Areas in Northeast nebraska and Central Nebraska likely experiencing some good snows at this point.
The NAM energizes the storm even more so with a VERY heavy band of snowfall from Lincoln Nebraska to Omaha Nebraska and areas in East Central, Central Nebraska and parts of southeastern Nebraska experiencing some VERY heavy snowfall. May be some localized THUNDER SNOW.
NAM continues to spin around EXTREMELY heavy snowfall around in Eastern Nebraska and Most of Iowa and Northern Missouri at this point. Rates may be 1″ an hour or more.
Folks the latest models have came in a bit stronger then last nights computer runs with Western and Central Nebraska seeing possibly 2-5″ of snowfall and 1″ possible as far east as Omaha and Lincoln, but that may be pushing it. I am not totally ruling out a big storm because the models can and will change!
BIG Storm Next week
The latest GFs model was developing a MONSTER storm system between the 17-19th of next week. IT was forming in Western Kansas with warm air over Eastern Nebraska and Iowa on Southward. It was displaying Severe storms possibilitys as far north as Omaha and much of Kansas and Iowa could get in ont his. As the GFS pulled the storm more east northeast, it begins to wrap around heavy wet snowfall from Omaha Nebraska to the North and West. Their could even bea BLIZZARD on the backside of this LARGE storm system. A wide array of weather may occur over the next storm with heavy snow, heavy rain/ severe storms, windy!
Correction guys, the NAM model didn’t go that far out, so their needs to be a few more frames to include the storm. I think that the models will continue to change a lot as the models this morning were showing a BIG storm for nebraska. The latest UKMET tracked the low pressure system from Western Kansas straight eastward. This would mostly likely give Nebraska and Southern Iowa some accumulating snowfall. More updates when the models come in later.
Heat Wave!
Folks it appears that the OWO viewing area is in for a great big warm up for the next several days! I advise you to take advantage of these warm temperatures over the next few days as winter is not over! Highs temperatures in South Dakota shall soar into the 50’s and 60’s for highs and Nebraska and Iowa temperatures shall reach the 60’s and 70’s. High temperatures in Kansas and Missouri tomorrow shall skyrocket mainly in the 60’s and 70’s for high temps! These temperatures should repeat themselves on Wednesday. On Thursday it should be pretty pleasent as well, just tack off 5-10 degrees from Wednesdays temperature.
MAJOR Winter Storm?
Folks, the latest models, particulary the Gfs model, has been predicting a much weaker and southern storm and a bit colder here. This seems very strange to me as i think that their will not be a enormous amount of cold air to supress the storm that far south so i am pretty more confident that more variations in the track will occure. Many of the other models haven’t came out so not much to say at this point. However, i updated a new two week hazards map showing where the possibility exsist for a snowstorm as well as the severe storms possibility next week in the Central Plains After this coming storm their will be a much more POWERFUL storm system battering the midwest and plains and OV! Their may be variations of Severe weather as far north as Omaha Nebraska with light snow on the backside, models have been showing another Ohio Valley MAJOR snowstorm as well as New England. March is the month folks when the battle of airmasses begin and when that happens, look out!
FOlks, i will be doing just a small update, per say, just a model update on what the models where doing with the late week posible snowstorm for the OWO viewing area. The latest GFS maintained a more easterly track which made it go right through Kansas City. It also strenghened the QPF(Precip) which had between 4-10″ of snowfall from Central to Eastern Nebraska to Western Iowa for this event. The ECMWF model showed the following track;
This would be a perfect Colorado Low Snowstorm for Most of Nebraska, Western and Southern Iowa for this snowstorm event. Basically, most of the other models have not either came out yet or dont go out long range.
The GFS is showing another MAJOR Storm for the following week, and the latest showed possible Storms and severe weather from Eastern Nebraska east and southward with snow ont he backside. Defiently will be something to watch.
Stay up tp date folks as this may be a MAJOR storm for some locals.
Folks, this is what we have been all waiting for! A warm up! Not just some small 40 degree warm up, but even higher temperatures then that! Models are bringing the strong warmth into the area starting Tuesday and last through Friday. High temperatures should reach the 50′6 and 60’s for highs in Iowa and Nebraska and 40’s and 50’s for South Dakota. Highs wil be in the 60’s and 70’s for Kansas and MIssouri. Highs should remain at that level from Tuesday through Wednesday then 40’s 50’s and 60’s for highs on Thursday and Friday across the OWO Viewing area! Enjoy it while you can!
Winter’s Last Gasp?!
Yes folks! It appears that some portion of the Central Plains will eb under the gun for a Winter Storm next weekend! The latest GFS models have been developing a MAJOR low pressure area in Western Kansas then scooting it eastward south of Kansas city. Gfs thinks that areas in Nebraska and Iowa as well as Northern Missouri and Northeast Kansas stand the best shot at this point. Below this writing it the low pressure depiction by the ECMWF model
That would permit heavy snow in South Dakota and Minnesota at that point, but the Gfs tell a different story;
Time will tell, but i do expect somebody to get a big snow event out of this! Please check the 2 week hazards map for the areas that may be affected by this storm! Keep in mind that i made that map two weeks ago and it may come true!
First i would like to apologize to the KM3 weather blog, i am sorry for not giving proper credit. Anyways, the weather has been rather downright cold and boring over the past few days. but if your looking for warmer weather you will find it next week! Highs across Nebraska and Iowa on Wednesday should be in the 50’s and 60’s and 70’s for highs in Kansas and Missouri! Besides that, plan for another cold weekend and sundays high temperatures should be in the 30-50’s for highs across Much of the OWO viewing area.
What about that active later march?
Well, folks, it still appears that a storm system will move out into the area next weekend, however the latest GFS was trending the storm system north of Eastern Nebraska and only a small storm. Keep in mind that this is 8 days away and anything can happen. So i advise you to stay tuned.
