Big Storm to the South & What about next weeks storm?

Southern Winter Storm Discussion

My forecast i had predicted yesterday is right on track for the Southern Upper Level Storm System. I have to admit that the Northern Fringe of my prediction of 1-3″ for Northern Kansas is a bit further South but overall i am doing a great job with my forecast. I have been looking over various computer models and i have came up with this forecast;

Kansas City; 1-2″
Oklahoma City; 3-5″
St. Louis; 6-10″
Chicago; 6-8″
Detroit; 8-10″
Buffalo NY; 8-10″
Much of the Eastern Lakes; 6-12″

The storm is so wound up that is is producing severe thunderstorms and tornados in the south, look below for the latest storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center;

I have decided to update my map just a tad to show the further north and South progression of the storm;

Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa Short Term Forecast - Thursday Night - Sunday Night

Thursday turned out to be a better day than i forecasted so that is great! Clouds were well south of the Omaha area allowing temperatures across most of eastern nebraska and western iowa skyrocketing into the 20’s and near 30*! Thursday night in Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa should feature lows in the 10’s and single digits for low and skys should be mostly clear north of I-80 and partly clouds south of I-80. TGIF will be a very nice day with high temperatures in the 30’s for high temperatures with mostly sunny conditions in Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. Friday Night through Saturday Night will feature lows in the teens and clear - partly cloudy skys and during the day saturday their should be a few clouds floating around with highs in the 30’s common throughout the viewing area. As we head in to Sunday and Sunday night a new storm system will be starting to affect the Central Plains. The models have not been handling this well. The GFS has been predicting various solutions;

1. Low pressure forms in Southern Kansas then moves right over Omaha Nebraska. This is not very good for snow across most of Nebraska and Iowa. It would be a more of Freezing rain and sleet and rain event.
2.If storm moves through Kansas City instead of Omaha, the storm would pull more cold air in from the northwest and would produce more snowfall across the area

Now school kids, teachers fans of my website, i know what your thinks, “why cant we ever get a decent snow around here to give us a snowday!”. Be patient, i know the next few months will feature more chances of getting that very snowday!

Now before i get off topic i will get back into the Storm discussion. Sunday will feature cloudy skys with highs in the 30’s once again. Precip will start to move in Sunday Night with possibly Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow/Rain depends on the exact track of the low pressure system and how much cold air moves in. Right now if your looking for a snow day, i think theirs a good chance if we get freezing rain, but please dont count on it since it is 3 days away and anything can change.

Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa Long Term Forecast - Monday - next Thursday

The afformentioned storm system will continue to affect the area with Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow/Rain during the day Monday and Monday night. The last GFS model is predicting some freezing rain / sleet across most of the area with the fzing line north of the area. the NAM computer model does not go out that far, but is showing mainly the same situation. After the storm passes, it should finally draw in more colder air, but the storm is already north east of us, so not much snow. The Tuesday -Thursday period should feature tranquil weather with highs in the 20’s. But their are some signs that a new storm system will be evolving in kansas on thursday. While the computer model did not show any precip with it, it had the perfect track for us to get snow. however, it is still too far in advance to get excited.

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Personalized Forecast

Soon i will be forecasting for;

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Thanks for reading,

Craig McPeck
Site Owner & Chief Forecasting Operations

Snow stays south and another shot of snow in the forecast

Wow, what a very chilly day! Just think, we were near 60* 2 days ago and we only managed a 15* high temperature for today!

Short Term Forecast - Wednesday Night - Sunday

Their will be a powerful upper level storm system developing in the desert southwest then it will be on the move into the texas panhandle. It will begin to pull up Gulf Moisture. The areas most proned to snowfall or if any, will be Falls City Nebraska and extreme NW Missouri. Northwest Missouri stands a chance at only 1″ of snowfall, if that will happen. The latest GSF(Global Forecast System) is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for Kansas City, 4-6″ for St. Louis, 6-8″ for South East kansas. Just think those areas had Severe Thunderstorms the day before with 60’s and 70’s for highs. But most of Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa will experience dry and very cold conditions. Some meteorologist tend to over forecast the high temperatures with these Arctic outbreaks in place. So i will go for low to upper teens for highs from I-80 on northward with south of that line seeing possibly 19-22 degrees for a high temperature. As we head into TGIF Day(Thank God It’s Friday!) the balmy pattern with commence once again on Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa! Highs will get into the 30’s for highs and western iowa will experience highs in the upper 20’s. The high temperatures should mainly be from the lower to mid 30’s throughout the Omaha Weather Office viewing area. Dry weather i expected for the Short Term Forecast period so get outside and enjoy it!

Here is my forecasted totals for the whole storm, i could not leave my Southern friends out of this!

Long Term Forecast - Sunday Night - Thursday[next Week]

The quiet weather should be short lived and a new storm system will be gathering strength over the four corner region as we head into sunday. I have been looking at the latest Computer Models, and the GFS has been rather inconsistent with this storm system. Ever other run it has a pretty strong storm with the low pressure moving in southern Kansas in through Kansas City then through the western great lakes. Previous runs have indicated that Eastern Nebraska would see 3-5″ of new snowfall Sunday Night through Monday. As of 4:30 PM today, the latest GSF indicated that a weaker storm will happen and only maybe an inch of snowfall tops. The European Computer model has been indicating a good storm system with good snows in Eastern Nebraska. So the verdict is out on this storm and until the storm moves on land and the models start agreeing with each other, i will start putting out snowfall predictions. Models have also been indicating that this storm may be mixed with some rain or freezing rain and a secondary low pressure later mid week, but also the latest information suggest that one is out to lunch as well. Temperatures after this storm passes will be int he 20’s for the rest of the week so typical weather for early February.

So yet again another near miss from a storm in Eastern Nebraska and NO SNOWDAYS yet School Kids and Teachers.I will be making a snow day page soon displaying closing and Omaha Weather Office’s Snow day scale.

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Thanks for reading!

Craig McPeck
Chief Forecasting Operations of Omaha Weather Office

Blizzard ends and more snow chances loom!

Blizzard Discussion

The Cold Front came blasting through the region early on this morning around 4 AM. Temperatures plumeted. Then the snow moved iun with 30-40 MPH winds with gust to 50 MPH. Blizzard Conditions were reported with scattered power outages. Most locals picked up between 1/2″ and 2″.

Next Snow Chance

The latest Models runs are not agreeing. The NAM computer models give Eastern Nebraska Zilch. With most of any snow north of us. the GFS computer model is giving I-80 and south 1-5″ of snowfall with gusty winds. I am gonna lean more towards the GFS giving Eastern Nebraska more of a Snow Wednesday - Thursday. If you look at this precip total map for the entire event;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_084l.gif

It gives Omaha 2-5″ of new snowfall. The Omaha Weather Office will consider issuing a Snow Advisory for all of Eastern Nebraska and Southwest Iowa sometime tomorrow.

Early Next Week Storm

The models have been developing a strong storm system giving Parts of Eastern nebraska and Southwest Iowa accumulating snowfall. The latest GFS spat out another 2-5″ of fresh snowfall. the ECWMF(European) computer model is forming a Low in the Texas Panhandle and moving it through Kansas City. This would give Eastern Nebraska a good shot at snowfall.

STAY TUNED AS WINTER WEATHER WATCHES/ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED

STRONG POLOR COLD FRONT AND HIGH WINDS TUESDAY

Detailed Discussion on the Polar Cold Front

(click any part of text to go to advisorys page)

Boy, haven’t we been spoiled with warm weather for the pat few days! Well, hang on to every bit of it for the rest of today because its coming to an end! The strong cold front will come through Eastern Nebraska around the early morning hours with very cold temperatures, with rapid 10-20 degree drops in temperatures. The wind gradient will increase as the front pushes through with gust from 40-50 MPH expected through noon. Light snow will also accompany the High winds which may produce extensive blowing and drifting of snowfall. Accumulation’s should be light raining from 1-2″ from I-80 on northward, generally in the Snow Advisory Area that our forecasters issued already. Highs will be in the teens most of the day with the winds continuing from 10-30 MPH in the afternoon. Wind Chills will be very brutal ranging from 0-30 below zero.

Warm Weather & Cold Weather & More Snow!

Warm Weather

The warm up continues with highs skyrocketing in the lower 40’s for the next 2 days. You know the saying, What comes up must come down! And you little kids will be able to make snow castles and snow men and what not! perfect weather for snow sculpture making. 32 degrees = Stickier Snow

The Return of the Arctic!

You know it had to happen again folks! After our brief warm spell, it looks as if it will all come to an end late monday night. Interesting enough that the GFS has been depicting that a storm system gives Eastern Nebraska and Southwest 40 MPH winds with an inch of Snowfall on Tuesday with lower 20* temperatures. With the wind, no doubt that the wind chill could be kept below that! Maybe even below zero! Could be reduced visibilties with the snowfall!

More Snow after that?

Looks like their may be a strong storm system in the plains and the latest models have been giving Eastern Nebraska a snow storm or south of Nebraska a snowstorm. Who, knows but we will keep watching!

UPDATE: WINTER STORM ALERT ISSUED

Snow and what it does to the Temperatures

Always the Meteorologist tend to over do the temperatures once we have had 6″ sitting on the ground for more than 3 weeks. When a warm up comes, thet get to get to excited about the big warm up(Ch. 6) and just throw numbers out basing it off the Infamous GFS(Global Forecast System). I have started developing my own formula for this so i can better forecast. Basically, their will be a big warm up this weekend. Some meteorologist say it will touch near 50 monday. Do you really believe that? I am not one to criticize other peoples forecast but come on, haven’t you learned your lesson from the past occurances?

For Example for this weekend, i expect a high temperature on Saturday of 38 degrees, due to the extensive snow cover on the ground. Sunday will feature a high of 42 due to still the snow cover. And Monday with a high near 39. Then, as you know it, the next arctic blast comes down into the plains and you would think we would get some more snow, right? BINGO! But i will get into that later. First i will explain my latest research with snow and how much impact it has on the temperature;

12″ of snowfall = 15 degree Impact in Temperature
6″ of snowfall = 6-11 degree’s of impact on temperature
Below 6″ of snowfall = Below 6 degrees of impact on temperature

This is the formula i will using anytime their is snow cover on the ground

Stay tuned for my next entry about the extended outlook!

New Snowfall Maps

New data has came in, and the NAM has it WAY further north! I do not expect that to happen! The GFS has been rather consistant with this event and i am more than confident we will end up with….

Sundays Snowfall:

Mondays Snowfall:

Omaha Accumulations;

Sunday; 2-4″
Monday; 1-2″
Total:3-6″

More updates as they come!

Bitterly Cold and Accumulating Snow!

The Coldest Air of the season. Omaha Nebraska bottomed out at -9* F very early saturday morning. Highs will struggle to make it to 8 degrees which is what im forecasting for the omaha metro! Is more snow on the way? Yes their is! Oh no say it so! But, it is so! And i have been carefully calculating the weather computer models, here i have finally compiled a forecast;

A closer look near omaha and Eastern Nebraska;

Omaha Nebraska Forecast;

Saturday: Bitter Cold. Hi 8*
Saturday Night: Cloudy Flurries Late. Lo 0*
Sunday: Snow. Accumulations of up to 2-4″
Monday: Snow. Accumulations 1-2″. Total Accumulations of up to 4-6″

Since it will be very cold, the snow ratios will be high. In the 6+ band i would not be surprised to see an 7 or 8″ amount but that will be rare with this event. Since this snow will be dry and the air will be VERY cold, it will not take long for the snow to accumulate.

Please stay abreast to the latest here.

-Craig

Arctic Express and more snow!

ARCTIC EXPRESS

After the last snow system, most residents picked up betwen 3-6″ of new snowfall from Omaha to the South. The bullseye occured in Southwestern Iowa with up to 6″ of new snow fell. Highs will be in the teens and single digits for all of the next 7 days. The coldest which will occur over the weekend and at the end of next weekend.

More Snow?

Yes! More snow in is forecasted across Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. The GSF has been rather consistant with this storm and with most of the storms this year it has been very accurate. It displays a good swath of snowfall from Western Nebraska through Iowa with such areas as Grand Island, Valentines Des Moines and Chicago in the Plains seeing the most snowfall. Things may change so dont bet on this, but the GFS model has been rather consistant and i have made up an eastern Nebraska map:

I will update the blog more until i get more computer model data and refine my forecast if it needs.

-Craig

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