SEVERE STORMS?

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Folks, it appears that severe storms will be possible over portions of Northeast Nebraska and West Central Iowa Tuesday evening. Please stay tuned for BIGREDWEATHER.COM for more details!

THE BIG STORY: HEAT & POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS?

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I hope everyone enjoyed this wonderful summer day with high temperatures in the upper 7os to lower 80s today. Perfect for riding a bike, taking a run or simply sitting out on the front deck. Summertime humidity wasnt with us as well which made it even more so pleasent for this sunday, July 5th. But as we head throughout this week, that will change as a ridge starts to develop over the Central United States. First things first and the day by day forecast. As we head through tonight low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with low releative humidity, making it for a perfect night for camping and opening that window you have so long desired to all summer! As we head through the day Monday, this is when the transition takes place, high temperatures will begin to soar into the middle to upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Dew points and humidity will also be on the upglide through the day with dew points creeping up into the lower to middle 60s.

Tuesday gets interesting with a storm system approacing the area. The storm prediction center has issued a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for a good portions of the viewing area, especially from Columbus to Little Sioux Iowa on Northwest. Ingredients will come together, such as CAPE in excess of 2000-3000, combined with middle to upper 60 dew points will create the chances of severe storms developing. But, a CAP of warm air will remain just above the surface, preventing thunderstorms from forming. If storms develop they would most likely occur in Northeast Nebraska and Northwestern and West Central Iowa where the CAP will be weaker and more dyamics to bust the cap will be present. I would say areas such as Norfolk, Columbus and Little Sioux Iowa have a better shot at seeing this happen. Things can change so please stay tuned for more information on this potential stormy weather in the region Tuesday.

Now the real heat begins later past Wednesday. High temperatures should soar into the lower – middle 90s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Also, the humidity will begin to increase dramatically with dew points surgining into the lower – middle 70s making fora deadly combo with heat indices approaching 100 possibly. This heat wave will not be nearly as strong as the last one, but it will be pretty brutal considering what we have been through this weekend with upper 60s and virtually no humidity. What goes up must come down of course, Saturday or friday could be the transition day to cooler temps. And also, some thunderstorms may erupt along a front with possible severe storms if the right ingredients come toghether. Bottom line is that Severe storms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the viewing area if the CAP can break and Heat is on for the end of the week.

THE BIG STORY: FALL LIKE TO HEAT WAVE IN 7 DAYS!!!

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I hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Despite the Cool weather in the 60s and 70s and clouds all day not to mention the heavy drizzle that fell on my head, it was a good evening for fire work viewing. No Mosquitos or bugs to speak of. Take a good walk before the weekend is over because this tranquil weather and temperatures will not last beyond Sunday. As we head towards Sunday, it should actually be quite a much better day then this Saturday. The clouds will have been completely eroded, and high temperatures will be in the lower to Middle 80s. Ideal weather for a picnic and throwing the frisbee around. As we head through monday-Tuesday things really begin to heat up across the entire viewing area. High temperatures will soar to near 90 degrees Monday and into the lower 90s by Tuesday as well as Wednesday. Also, Humidity values will begin to rise as well with the high heat by the end of the week. What does this all mean? It means High Heat Index values will once again be possible across the viewing area. The hottest days of the last two weeks will center around Thursday and Friday when high temos could be over 95-97 degrees over much of the viewing area. Combined with humidity values as well. I wouldnt be too surprised if a Heat Advisory was issued for the region later on this week.

This whole pattern responsible for the heat that will soon build into the region is a ZOnal Flow pattern, and jet stream, which flos from west to East bringing some storm systems as well as windy conditions. This will also be responsible for a ridge of high pressure and that is what is centering the hot area of high pressure over the Center of the Nation. But, by Saturday, a cold front will move into the region, bringing with it possible Scattered Thunderstorms, some severe with all this heat and humidity mixed in. It isnt for sure in the books right now for Severe Storms occuring later in the week, but past history shows that this could happen. Bottom line is that this cool damp weather will soon transition into a real comfortable summer day Sunday then to real downright nasty by the end of the week. This is the Midwest folks, Fall and summer like weather all in one week. Have a nice rest of your weekend and stay tuned for more weather forecast!

THE BIG STORY: CLOUDY AND COOL 4TH OF JULY! BUT DRY!

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Ah i can smell the hot dogs, the ribs and smell the smell of gun powder! But will mother nature hamper our fireworks? The question is no. Today’s Fourth is likely to be one we havent seen in a long while. High temperatures will be quite cool for July standards due to cloud cover throughout the entire day. During today the rain chance is pretty slim at about a 20% chance so i would not hesitate at this point to light those firecrackers during the day! As we progress through the day the high temps will peak at 72-77 degrees due to the cloud cover, Infact this may be the coolest Fourth of July since the early 1900’s for some cities, please scroll below the fireworks image to see some history!. The moment we have been all waiting for. The night of the fireworks! Once again clouds will linger and may start to break apart before 10 PM Saturday evening with temps cooling into the lower 70s and into the upper 60s. Conditions should be perfect for setting off fireworks with cool conditions, and no rain chance at all..I would rate this 4th of July at about a B+. Please enjoy your holiday and please continue to stay tuned to bigredweather.com for more Holiday Forecast details.

THE BIG STORY: STORMS & HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT

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Hello everyone i hope you are having a great Pre-4th of July Night! I just got word that several Firework shows were post poned due to the heavy rain this evening. Looking over radar right now, it appears that the heaviest concentrated area of Heavy Rain and storms is from I-80 South in nebraska and Iowa. But more so near the Kansas, Nebraska Missouri Borders. For the rest of the night scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible over the viewing area with areas south of I-80. But overall the worst is over as forecasted by the Big Red Weather Network. No severe storms are forecasted for the overnight hour.

Forecast Verification: Big Red Weather’s Forecast for tonight called for areas of 1-2″ of rainfall from I-80 on straight southward. As you can see by the image below, it verified. Areas near Omaha Nebraska and Council Bluffs Iowa however did not receive as much as previous anticipated but overall I would give myself a B+ with the forecast for tonight.

THE BIG STORY: SEVERE STORMS & EXCESSIVE RAINFALL

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Hello and good morning everyone on this wonderful TGIF Friday! One day before the big day! Anyways, the viewing area is gearing up for extensive amounts of rainfall and possibly severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Lets first get started off with what is going on through noon today. Current we are experiencing a couple of showers across the viewing area left over from last nights Convective Storms from Western Nebraska. These should continue to move eastward and fall apart through noon. Rainfall amounts should be pretty sparse with this activity so no worries of heavy rainfall with this batch. As we head later into the afternoon hours this is when things will begin to get dicey across the region. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for severe storms from Norfolk to Little Sioux Iowa on Southward. A favorable enviroment exsist for super cells to develop in the region with large hail and damaging winds the mains hazards. Even an isolated Tornado may be possible from Lincoln to Omaha to Council Bluffs on southward.

Heavy Rainfall should be a real concern across the entire viewing area. I have been analysing over the computer models for the last couple of days and finally they have worked out their differences and came to a solid solution. It appears with precipable water values approacing 2.00″ this evening and model’s developing a large swath of heavy rain of 1-2.00″ of rain across the area. But models always tend to unerestimate heavy rainfall amounts due to that they cant display thunderstorms very well. Nevertheless Heavy rainfall amounts of 1.00-2.00″ will be possible over the entire region tonight. Firework activities im afraid will be affected with mother natures fireworks. The thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will tend to wain and severe activity should diminish after 10-11 PM transition to more of a Heavy Rain threat into Iowa. Stay tuned for the new update near Noon.

BIG STORY : OVERNIGHT STORMS & SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY?

Hello everyone i hope you are having a great evening getting ready for the holiday! As promised have issued this new forecast concerning Severe Weather Potential and Heavy Rain Potential over the next few days. Current radar trends show that an expansive area of Showers and Thunderstorms are developing in Northern and Western Nebraska. Current storm motion puts them in a Eastern Southeast storm motion currently. As of right now, the storms are not severe nor am i expecting any severe weather for the rest of the night except for an isolated hailer. Despite this and their east southeast storm motion, current precipable water index tables show a healthy area of building moisture over Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa with dewpoints increasing to near 60 degrees. Current thinking is that areas north of Interstate 80 tonight have the best opportunity of seeing any showers and storm chances tonight. Once again now Severe Weather expected but an isolated hailer may be possibe. The main threat will be heavy rain so some areas may pick up a decent amount of rainfall. The region should get a brief breaking during mid day and try to clean up the atmosphere for afternoon storms though it will be pretty tough to get the atmosphere heated up if clouds linger through the day. Nevertheless, Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Storm risk from Columbus to Harlan Iowa on Southward with main threats being large hail and damaging Winds. Areas South of Lincoln to Nebraska City will stand a threat of an Isolated Tornado due to higher shear values. The main threats in this whole storm will be the heavy rainfall and with models nosing out a healthy 1-2″ of rainfall across most of the viewing area, i would expect that a good bet. So please plan on Heavy Rain and chance for Scattered Severe Storms tomorrow evening and a possibility of a early morning waker Friday Morning. Stay tuned for the 4th of July forecast coming Friday. Have a great night fellow weather watchers!

HEAVY RAIN & SEVERE STORMS?

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Hello fellow Big Red Weather Viewers! So the real big quesiton is, where is the rain we have been promising? The truth is the warm front has been more south then forecasted and it appears that the Severe Storm Risk and Thundestorm risk will be out west again near Valentine Nebraska and North Platte. But we still fair a better shot at receiving a few storms tonight in the viewing area but just not as high as earlier thought. That is better for any outdoor firework plans that any of you have planned. But, Severe Thunderstorms are forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center for Friday and Friday Evening. They mention large hail, damaging winds and ISOLATED TORNADOS will be possible with the warm front nosing northward. The risk is mainly from Columbus to Omaha on South. Please stay tuned for addition details regarding the potential risk.

STORMS WEST TODAY & COOLER WEATHER REMAINS

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As advertised, the viewing area would move into a much stormier pattern starting Wednesday. From previous thoughts the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe risk further west out of our viewing area. Right as it appears now, most if not all of the Thunderstorm activity and severe weather will remain out of the viewing area for today.. Reguardless Thunderstorm chances increase through the Weekend with potential Isolated Severe storms later Thursday, Friday and Saturdays nights over parts of of the viewing area depending on where the warm front sets up across the Central Plains, currently looks a bit more south which would keep the greatest threat south of us. Cooler weather will remain with highs in the lower 80s and even some 70s for the viewing area on Thursday

Of course what will the 4th of July be like? According to weather data it appears their will be at least a 30-40% shot at Thunderstorms arriving later on Saturday Night. Most of the time on Independence day fireworks go off between 9:45-10:30 so at the time, firework festivities should be alright, but please stay tuned as these things can sneak up on us as we get closer. Thank you for reading and have a nice day!

MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS

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Yep you heard that right, Thunderstorms and the return for a risk for Severe Thunderstorms will commence later on this week. But before that we have a couple nice days ahead of that. High temperatures today will reach into the lower 80s with mid to upper 50s tonight followed by more of the same for Wednesday. Later oon thsi week severe thunderstorms mainly overnight will be possible over the region from Thursday night-Saturday night. So some of mother natures fireworks will be quite likely. Stay tuned to Bigredweather.com for more updates!