Two Parts to the Storm

2 02 2008

Part 1 Discussion – Sunday – Sunday Night

Well folks, it looks like this isn’t our storm once again, and we will miss the brunt of it once again for all of Part 1 of the storm. The Latest GFS model came out and looks as if very light precip will start developing in the afternoon hours. The Freezing line should be very close or just north of the Omaha Metro area. Due to the fact that this looks like VERY light precip, and due to the colder temperatures near the surface, looks as if we may experience some light freezing rain/sleet and some snow in the afternoon Sunday. Again, this will be very light and should continue through Sunday night. The next frame showed that the brunt of the Heaviest precip was east of the missouri river. At this point, through early monday morning, the freezing rain/sleet/snow should turn to light snow early monday morning over the area. Areas in Western Iowa and Northeast Kansas and SW Iowa should experience heavier precip with some greater icing totals.

Part 2 – Monday – Tuesday Night
As we head into the day monday, the low pressure should be gathering strength in Western Kansas. Very light precip should continue with freezing rain/sleet and snow. The freezing line should be just south of omaha nebraska Monday afternoon. By Monday evening the precip should get a little bit heavier with a bit more freezing rain/sleet as well as a few snow showers mixed in for good measure. At this point, monday evening, the low continues to sit in Western Kansas. As we head into later Monday night, the very light freezing drizzle/rain/sleet should continue with the freezing line just a bit more north then earlier in the evening. The bulk of the much heavier precip should be occuring in southern Minnesota at this point where i am forecasting up to 3-5″ of new snowfall up their. The storm then exites out of the area Tuesday Morning with light snow far to the north of the viewing area. Minnesota should still be getting socked with snowfall once again with perhaps 1-2″ more of snowfall. Giving them 4-6″ of new snowfall. But could their be round three to the storm? yes! Their will be! But the latest model had the freezing line well south in Kansas with most of the snowfall in Northeast Kansas at that point with 1-3″ of snowfall their.

Currently it looks like the time period of Sunday-Monday morning our area should pick up .10-.15 of precip from I-80 on north and .25-.50 on to the south of that line.

While, a tenth of an inch of ice may be hazardous for some people monday, their still will be a 10-40% chance of a Snowday monday. Remember, things can change, and will most likely change. Please stay tuned.

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck
Chief Forecasting Operations

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