Morning Update on MAJOR Winter Storm

15 02 2008

Afternoon Update Of NAM
2:30 PM Update

The newest NAM is out and is agreeing with teh GFs and is a bit further North;

Looks like places such as Falls City Nebraska could see 4-7″ of snowfall if the NAM was right and Omaha Nebraska could see 2-5″ of snowfall as well as Lincoln Nebraska. Areas such as Des Moines look to see 4-8″ of snowfall and Cedar rapids 6-12″ of snowfall. Areas such as Chicago look to stay rain for most of event with 2-4 or maybe 5″ at end of the storm. Severe weather still looks like a good bet in Texas Saturday and Sunday.

Morning Update on MAJOR Winter Storm
Issued at 11:32 AM

Ok folks, I will be updating you guys on the NAM, GFS and ECMWF Models and what they are showing for the Snowstorm this weekend.

GFS

The GFS model just came out and is a bit further northwest right now. The GFS is painting copius amounts of precip with even 2-5″ of snowfall as north as Omaha Nebraska. The GFS paints 5-8″ in Des Moines and in the Cedar rapids area 5-12″ of snowfall. The switchover will be very important. The freezing line most of the event should be a bit north or south of Omaha Nebraska, Des Moines Iowa, and in the Cedar rapids areas. Areas just south of that line may see some mixing of freezing rain/sleet/snow. Aread like Kansas City and Chicago and St Louis should see mostly rain, with a small changeover to snow in chicago at the end of the storm. So, the result is from the GFS that is moved further NW and areas such as Omaha and des moines may have to pay attention to this storm. Areas of Texas may experience severe storms once agin.

NAM

The NAM is a very different story and continues to flip flop. Areas such as Falls City Nebraska, Des Moines would pick up 2-5″ of snow and the Cedar rapids area ocne again 5-10″ possible their that the NAM is suggesting. Interesting enough that the NAM suggest Chicago stay warm for most of the system with a few inches on backside, and Kansas City would get a heavy band of 4-7″ of snow on the backside of the system. So end result is that the NAM and GFS aren’t agreeing and i would tend to agree taht the GFS is more accurate so i am going with that model.

ECMWF

The ECMWF is basically showing the same scenario that the GFS is saying

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008021500!!/

My Winter Storm Alert map i made yesterday is pretty good on the NW side, but i will do some tweaking in the afternoon update.

Stay tuned folks as this storm will get interesting and may slide further NW or further SE or stay the same. Please stay tuned for more updates

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck

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