Morning Update & BIG Announcement!

19 02 2008

The BIG Announcement

The Omaha Weather Office in the next one – two months will be moving to a fully coded website with professional website template. Their will be so many more features, so i hope you stay tuned to any other announcements!

The BIG Cool Down!

More then a big cool down, downright chilly arctic air is heading to the Omaha Weather Office viewing area! ARctic High Pressure will form in the Dakotas on Wednesday with plumetting temps going south! Most of Kansas and Missouri should stay below 32* and some locals may not even get out of the 20’s for highs! As you go further North and Northeast of those areas, much colder weather will be common with single digits/teens for highs in Nebraska and Iowa and the further north you go, may not even reach above the low single digits! Now that is some downright chilly air! Bundle up!

Southern Snow System late Week

The latest Gfs model was developing a storm system in the Southern Planes with the snow starting to develope near the Kansas City area. The models are really not developing this into the strong system some people thought it might be, but that may change, but as of now, it hasn’t. Areas such as Central and Eastern Kansas, Northern, Central and Southern Missouri may experience some accumulations with the storm system. Areas in Southern Missouri may also experience some frozen precip. Please stay tuned if you live in Kansas and Missouri as this storm could put down some accumulating snowfall.

Early Next Week Snow Storm?

Yes folks its true! Yet another storm to track! The GFS has been rather consistent since last Friday of the idea of having a storm system moving through Western Kansas next week. The latest Gfs has it a tad bit weaker then last night, however the storm wrapped more colder air into the storm, thus, areas such as Eastern Nebraska and Parts of Iowa could pick up some snowfall accumulations. The Gfs did had areas in Nebraska picking up 2-5″ of snowfall. Actually, the ECMWF model doesn’t even show much of a storm. The storm system is still 6-7 days away and plenty of time for it to change and will likely change but the general idea is that a strong system may develop early next week.

Total Lunar Eclipse Wednesday Night

A total lunar eclipse is forecasted for Wednesday Night, to view more information on it, please view here;

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Global Warming May Reduce Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls

Courtesty of;

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/2…rmeroceans.html

A warming global ocean — influencing the winds that shear off the tops of developing storms — could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States according to new findings by NOAA climate scientists. Furthermore, the relative warming role of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans is important for determining Atlantic hurricane activity.

The article, to be published on January 23 in Geophysical Research Letters, uses observations to show that warming of global sea surface temperatures is associated with a secular, or sustained long-term increase, of vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased vertical wind shear coincides with a downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

“We looked at U.S. landfalling hurricanes because it is the most reliable Atlantic hurricane measurement over the long term,” says Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami and lead author on the article. “Using data extending back to the middle nineteenth century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up. This trend coincides with an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, which could result in fewer U.S. landfalling hurricanes.” For the article, Wang worked with Sang-Ki Lee of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies-University of Miami.

In terms of hurricane strength, Wang notes, “The vertical wind shear is not the only factor affecting Atlantic hurricane activity, although it is an important one.” Other factors include atmospheric humidity, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature.

This study also suggests that where the global ocean warming occurs is important for determining the vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane main development region — within the 10°-20° North latitude belt that stretches from west Africa to Central America. Whether future global warming increases Atlantic hurricane activity will probably depend on the relative role induced by sustained long-term warming over the tropical oceans.

Observations from 1854 to 2006 show a warming of sea surface temperature occurring almost everywhere over the global ocean, with large warming in tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. Warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, Indian and North Atlantic oceans produce opposite effects upon vertical wind shear; that is, warming in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane main development region, while warming in the tropical North Atlantic decreases vertical wind shear. Overall, warming in the Pacific and Indian oceans is of greater impact and produces increased levels of vertical wind shear which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck
Chief Forecasting Operations

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